Poker Outs and Odds
A costly mistake that is commonly made by newer poker players is chasing too many draws. Generally, players that do this tend to lack an understanding of what poker outs are, how to figure out how many outs they have and then how to go about figuring out the odds of catching their needed outs on later streets. By not knowing how to do all of this, players are making a mistake that can cost them tons of money on any given hand, not to mention over the long run.
So for those of you that would like to learn more about poker outs, odds and why these fundamentals in poker are important, please keep on reading as we have provided this information for you below.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
What are Poker Outs - How to Count Poker Outs
In a nutshell, poker outs are simply the cards that are left in the deck that you need to make a better 5-card poker hand. An example will better explain what we mean.
Let's say that you had As-Ks and saw a flop which brought a Qc-10h-2d. Here you have a gut-shot straight draw where any jack will better your hand. Since there are 4 jacks in a deck of cards, you then have 4 outs to make your straight. That is simply all that poker outs are, they are cards that are left in the deck that make you a better hand.
However, with that in mind, there are a few important things to remember when counting how many outs you have.
Counting Outs Twice: When counting outs that will apply to multiple hands, say, to straights and flushes, it is important not to count outs twice. For example, if you had 7s-8s and the flop was 10s-Jh-Ks, then you would have 9 cards left that would make you a flush and 4 cards (9's) that would make you a straight for a total of 13 outs. This is where many players get it wrong. You actually have only 12 outs because the 9 of hearts that would make both a straight and/or a flush should only be counted once. So you either have 9 cards to a flush and 3 to a straight or 8 to a flush and 4 to the straight. It really doesn't matter how you count them as long as you are only counting them once.
Discounting Outs/Dirty Outs: Now, discounting outs is really an article all of it's own, but what you need to consider when counting outs is how likely the outs that will help you will also help your opponent. Using the same example above, a large majority of the flush outs can be considered 'dirty' because if any one of them besides a 9 comes up, it is very probably that someone else has made a better flush. This is also known as reversed implied odds, which is also another topic for another article. Just keep in mind that you need to know what outs can potentially make better hands for others and act accordingly.
Count All Outs in Deck: Generally, many players wonder if they should discount an out or two in case their opponent has an out they need. But unless you know for sure that your opponent has a few of the outs you need to make your hand, just make the math easier for yourself and count all the outs that are available to you in the deck.
Once you have an understanding of how to count poker outs, it is then time to learn how to figure out odds in poker
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Poker Odds
Once you count how many outs you have, then it is time to covert those outs into odds. There are a couple ways to go about doing this.
4/2 Rule: The 4/2 rule is simply what you multiply your outs by either on the flop (4) or on the turn (2) to give yourself a rough percentage of how likely it is to catch your outs. For example, if you have 9 outs to a flush draw on the flop then you would multiply that by 4 which would give you a 36% chance of completing your flush. If on the turn, you would then multiply 9 by 2 to figure an 18% chance of completing your flush.
Odds/Math: The other way to calculate your odds are to take the amount of cards that are left in the deck, subtract the ones you need, and divide what is left by the number of outs you have. It sounds more complicated than it really is. For example, you have 4 cards to a flush on the flop. You have seen 5 cards (3 on the flop, 2 in your hand), so there are only 47 left in the deck. You take 47, subtract your outs which in this case you have 9, for a total of 38 cards that will not help you. Then, you take 38 and divide that by 9 (outs) to give yourself roughly 4.2. This is looked at as 4.2:1 or 4.2 to 1. What this ultimately means is that you will catch an out you need once out of every 5.2 tries (4.2 + 1).
Lastly, once you have an understanding of poker outs and odds, then you will need to know about pot odds.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Poker Pot Odds
Figuring your pot odds is just as simply if not more so than figuring out your card odds. All that pot odds are is the ration of money you will be receiving in the event that you win in comparison to how much money you have to put into the pot to win that money.
For example, if you had to call a $400 bet with a pot of $1,600, you would then be receiving $1,600 to $400 pot odds, or when simplified, 4 to 1.
Pot odds are important to understand because you will then compare your pot odds to your card odds to then determine whether you are getting the correct odds to chase your draws. This is also known as figuring out your expected value. Expected value will tell you whether the play you are about to make has a positive or negative monetary consequence which you will then base your decisions from.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Figuring Outs and Odds in Poker
Although this may seem like a lot of information to take in at once, don't worry, it gets much easier with practice. It is definitely worth the practice as you will soon find that figuring out your outs, odds and expected value will keep you from making decisions that will do you more harm than good over an extended period of time.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -